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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its first major military attack on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and capture its head of state – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.